Nate Silver of 538.com, the poll meta-analyzer whose presidential and senate predictions pretty much nailed actual results, gave Mark Begich a 100% chance of beating Ted Stevens in this election. Alaska's Senate race is still too close to call. However, Begich was supposed to have won by double digits. Ethan Berkowitz was supposed to have beaten Don Young by double digits as well. So what happened? How could an election cycle that we now know witnessed the most accurate polling predictions in history, get it so wrong in Alaska?
Nate offers his thoughts on the matter here.
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